Assessment of Socioeconomic Vulnerability in Selected Villages of Gosaba Block, Sundarban, India Using an Artificial Neural Network

The Indian Sundarban represent an endangered ecosystem with a distinct biogeographical composition. It is susceptible to natural disasters like storms, floods, and cyclones, hence jeopardizing its socioeconomic systems due to environmental stresses. This study aimed to evaluate the present socioeconomic vulnerability, identify key factors that exacerbate this vulnerability, and validate these factors using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) prediction model. Researchers also wanted to validate this evaluation with ANN to promote substantive discussions between researchers, local authorities, and stakeholders. Comprehensive reviews and successful adaption plans will improve. The study conducted in selected villages with 160 households in the Gosaba Block, located on the periphery of the Sundarban. The present study employed an integrated vulnerability approach, calculating the exposure, adaptive capacity, and sensitivity index by weighting the initial eigenvalues of each indicator with a variance percentage through principal components analysis (PCA). Based on this criterion, 156 households (97.5%) exhibited an extremely high vulnerability score, while 4 households (2.5%) displayed a moderate vulnerability grade. The villages of Pakhiralay and Lahiripur exhibit significant vulnerability, with a markedly deficient adaptive capacity. The villages of Mathurakhand, Kumirmari, and Satjelia exhibit vulnerability alongside moderate adaptation capacity. All are priority villages, however, Villages with moderate adaptive capacity may become less vulnerable with adequate interventions Proximity to market strongly affects MLP neural networks' assessment of environmental, economic, and social variables' effects on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Respondent age, family size, social network, storm surges, supplementary sources of household income Dwelling years, temperature, embankment failure, and income greatly affect model performance. A policy initiative should prioritize the enhancement existing social and financial capital, facilitate access to local government, and promote community-oriented activities. National disaster, social welfare, and resource management strategies need separate action plans. The national government is also encouraged to decentralize governance to enable local governments to achieve their goals.